Myanmar: US, Singapore officials hint at possibility of limiting military junta’s access to overseas financial assets

The February 7 meeting in Yangon examined questions about the party’s re-registration and other future plans, and the details of the discussion will likely be released after February 15, the party official said. “We have plans to rebuild the party, but we are still negotiating with each other about how to make it happen,” a party official who attended the meeting said on condition of anonymity. Officials of the dissolved United Democratic Party —whose former chairman is currently imprisoned—met in Yangon https://business-accounting.net/ on Tuesday to discuss plans to re-register and participate in a junta-organised election this year. He said the group now needed financial support to make more handmade mortars and other weapons. Nearly half of the estimated 2,500 civilians forced to flee the latest fighting in Kanpetlet… Zin Aung—the 35-year-old officer—and Thaukkya, another fighter in the PDF’s Battalion 9 whose age was not confirmed, were shot dead by junta forces while surveying the area’s terrain in preparation for combat.

• China has blocked UN efforts to address the crisis, instead pushing for the international response to be managed by ASEAN.
• For its part, Beijing’s sway in Myanmar is perhaps greater than that of any other country.
• Indeed, the coup has boosted both Aung San Suu Kyi’s popularity and anger at the military.
• This included freezing nearly $1 billion in Myanmar government funds held in the United States and targeting holding companies linked to coup leader Min Aung Hlaing and other top generals.

A riskier course of action would be to authorize the intelligence community to establish liaisons with several key ethnic armed organizations, especially those with least allegations of involvement in transitional crime. A less risky approach would be to authorize the intelligence community — if it has not already done so — to establish a liaison relationship with only the National Unity Government and let it leverage that relationship with the different ethnic armed organizations.

Myanmar Study Group: Final Report

Myanmar’s military has already demonstrated a wanton disregard for regional stability by causing serial mass migrations into neighboring countries. A chaotic Myanmar also risks becoming a petri dish for new COVID variants and other deadly diseases in ungoverned or unreachable areas of the country. International actors are left with few options for influencing events beyond signalling the unacceptability of the Tatmadaw’s takeover, and sadly none of those options are Singapore Has Financial Leverage To Pressure Myanmar likely to reverse it. Broad-based economic sanctions would harm the population more than the regime, and the impact of targeted sanctions will inevitably be limited. The military has never been primarily motivated by profits, and nothing indicates that this coup was about anything other than politics, power and personal ambition. There is nothing to suggest that external actors could today exert more leverage over Myanmar’s generals than they have in the past.

• China’s special representative demanded access to Aung San Suu Kyi, which was denied.
• As discussed below, however, these “smart sanctions” were ill suited to changing the calculations of Myanmar’s military leadership.
• China has provided COVID-19 vaccines to rebel groups along its border fighting the junta.
• Ambassador — who had defected to the National Unity Government — seated at the United Nations, a huge embarrassment for the junta.

Further telecommunications, transportation, financial, and business service disruptions are likely in the coming days. Listen to Crisis24 analysts discuss the consequences of the recent coup in Myanmar, including the likely impacts on security and business. Plus, by participating live, you will get a chance to ask your questions to our experts. Myanmar citizens living in India hold placards during a protest in New Delhi against the military coup in Myanmar and supporting recognition of the National Unity Government of Myanmar, February 22, 2022. But this “stability,” driven by the endless quest for power and control, infects and erodes every pillar needed for a functional society based on the rule of law. The result is frequently massive corruption, a broken economy, and a hopelessly partisan judiciary.

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Many in the international community are now questioning whether ASEAN has a productive role to play in responding to the coup. After all, its policy of non-interference in internal affairs has impeded ASEAN’s response to human rights challenges and threats to democracy throughout the region for a long time. Two member states – Singapore and Thailand – have clear economic and financial leverage, but they are unlikely to exercise it. ASEAN has some leverage in terms of providing humanitarian assistance through the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance , and this is one of the five points. Finally, ASEAN may have some political leverage with the suspension of Myanmar as a member. The benefits of ASEAN membership have not been lost on the junta, and while they may be prepared for economic sanctions from the Western world, the last thing they want is for the country to return to being a reclusive state. The foreign minister of Malaysia, an outspoken ASEAN state, similarly said on Thursday that the regional bloc needed to use its standing to put pressure on those who violate human rights – and should therefore rethink its cherished principle of non-interference in members’ affairs.

As Myanmar’s pro-democracy protesters brave gunfire from security forces that killed scores of civilians this week alone, the international community is seeking ways to rein in the military junta that seized power last month. For decades, Myanmar’s military rulers preferred isolation to outside engagement. Over the last decade, however, under a semi-civilian government, Myanmar slowly opened up its economy and society. This has created potential leverage points for diplomats who want to steer the country out of its current crisis.

A Chinese sphere of influence?

To prevent speculation and maintain stability, the DMMK will be pegged to the US dollar; avoiding the unstable kyat. Because it is a distributed-ledger system using blockchain technology, hackers for the SAC government will be unable to dismantle this end-run around the formal banking sector controlled by the military. In June, the SAC appointed six lieutenant colonels to serve as senior officers within the Central Bank, not something that instills confidence.

• Among the most immediate of these threats—in addition to the Myanmar military and its supporters—are China, Russia, and international criminal networks.
• The violence — and likely stalemate — will only compound the country’s humanitarian and economic morass.
• A woman sits at a school being used to house people displaced by fighting, in the city of Mekelle in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region on June 27, 2021.
• Any elections staged by the junta regime will be rejected by the population and international community as illegitimate.
• The military has just launched a major offensive in Chin State, in the country’s northwest, a region that has traditionally not seen large amounts of ethnic insurgent activity.

So too are the pro-democracy protesters who braved live gunfire this week to oppose the junta and have built ties with activists across the region. Institute of Peace organized the Myanmar Study Group in response to the evolving crisis in Myanmar following the military coup a month prior. To support U.S. policy towards Myanmar, USIP convened a group of 9 prominent experts for a series of discussions about the dynamic context within the country and U.S. government policy options.

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Sanctions can signal international anger and that there are consequences for military seizures of power. But it is vital to design them in ways that limit their impact on the broad economy and the general population. This principle is especially relevant at a time when millions in Myanmar are suffering from the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has increased poverty. Even as they look for ways to push the Tatmadaw toward restoring democratic rule, foreign powers’ immediate objective should be to deter deadly violence against protesters, which history shows Myanmar’s military is willing to inflict.

All officials and aides spoke on condition of anonymity, as they were not authorized to publicly discuss internal government deliberations. The Biden administration is considering sanctions targeting Myanmar’s energy sector, according to a U.S. official and aides familiar with the matter, following a crackdown on pro-democracy activists by the country’s ruling junta.